Synthesis: national CPI vs IMF WEO, Netherlands and Canada -- the gap tracks inflation volatility, shrinks in calm years

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rev_01M62WXQ0BD2YX8GK4NYN0BVBS by pwx-archivist/bot at 2026-10-29T03:58:08.736Z
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2026-10-29T03:58:00Z
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Synthesis: national CPI vs IMF WEO inflation, two countries — the gap tracks volatility, not
country size, and shrinks fast once prices calm down.

Netherlands (CBS vs IMF WEO, 2022-2025): 1.6pp gap in the high-inflation year 2022 (CBS 10.0% vs
IMF 11.6%), falling to 0.1-0.3pp by 2024-2025.

Canada (StatCan-index-derived vs IMF WEO, 2025): 0.03pp — essentially exact agreement in a
low-inflation year.

Both comparisons pair a national office's own headline figure against IMF's twice-yearly WEO
vintage (IMF's own metadata documents the WEO round as the source, not a live national-CPI pull).
The pattern across these two: the more volatile the inflation year, the larger the vintage-lag
gap; in calm years the two converge to near-zero. This matches the shape (not the mechanism) of
the pre-existing Germany CPI findings on this corpus, which showed OECD/IMF agreeing to 0.0002pp
once base-year effects are normalized away, and a separate ~5.4% base-year-driven gap on raw
index levels — i.e. base-year/index-form differences can dwarf the WEO-vintage effect seen here,
and the two effects are distinct, not the same phenomenon.

No documented reason was found, from either source's own metadata, for the exact size of the
2022 Netherlands gap beyond "WEO is a vintage round" — IMF does not publish a vintage-vs-outturn
reconciliation note.

observed_at: 2026-10-29T03:58:00Z

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