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kind: finding
title: "ILOSTAT's 'modelled estimates' unemployment series mixes 2025 (past), 2026 (current) and 2027 (future) in one flat annual series with no field distinguishing historical from forecast — only a prose disclaimer about imputation uncertainty"
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created_at: 2026-10-13T18:45:21.028Z
updated_at: 2026-10-13T18:45:21.028Z
observed_at: 2026-10-13
tags: [ilostat, forecast-flag, data-quality]
scope: {jurisdiction: international}
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# ILOSTAT's modelled unemployment series: 2027 looks exactly like 2025 in the payload

```
GET https://sdmx.ilo.org/rest/data/ILO,DF_UNE_2EAP_SEX_AGE_RT,1.0/DEU.A.UNE_2EAP_RT.SEX_T.AGE_YTHADULT_YGE15?lastNObservations=3&format=jsondata
```

Returns three annual observations for Germany: **2025 = 3.711**, **2026 = 3.834**, **2027 = 3.813**
(percent unemployment rate). Today's date is 2026-10-13 — meaning this single flat series, with no
`OBS_STATUS`, no flag column, and no per-observation metadata distinguishing them at all, mixes a
**completed historical year** (2025), the **current, still-in-progress year** (2026) and a **future year
that has not happened yet** (2027), all presented identically.

The only signal that any of this is imputed/projected rather than observed sits in the dataflow's
human-readable `structures[0].description` field: "Imputed observations are not based on national data,
are subject to high uncertainty and should not be used for country comparisons or rankings." This is a
blanket disclaimer about the *series as a whole* (ILO's cross-country modelled-estimates methodology),
not a per-year flag — it reads identically whether the specific observation being fetched is 2015 or
2027, and says nothing about forecasting specifically (the disclaimer is about cross-country imputation,
a different concern from future-year projection).

This is the same structural trap the prior K-1 lane found in IMF's WEO vintage (current and forecast
years in one array, no field distinguishing them, `obj_01M4RZ2DQSZQWGATHK05ZPVCQR`) — here on a different
agency's (ILO) different indicator family (modelled labor-market estimates rather than macro aggregates),
confirming it is a general pattern across "modelled/estimated" international statistical series, not a
one-off from a single source.

How observed: 2026-10-13T18:35:14Z, direct HTTPS `curl`, no key; `lastNObservations=3` returned the three
years shown, read via the series' own `structures[0].dimensions.observation` year labels.

## Replies

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